tom@larocque.biz  ·  3975 Zenobia St.  ·  Denver, CO  80212  ·  303-477-9914

   
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As stated: Normally, through most of the 20th century, a 5.79 percent gain in the stock market would take what, a year or so?   

This may be the most controversial (yet conservative) assertion in this essay.  I researched annual closing prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1960 to 2004. In that period, the average annual gain was 6.72 percent, as the Dow moved from 615.89 to 10,783.01.  Reaching 20 years farther back to include the World War II years, the average annual gain was greater—an average of 7.15 percent from 1940 to 2004.  Starting even in 1970, shortly before a long bear market, the average annual gain on the Dow through 2004 was 7.8 percent.  Cherry-picking just the boom years since 1981, the Dow’s average annual gain through 2004 was 11.54 percent.

As stated elsewhere, the Nasdaq Composite’s average annual ascent in the 20 years since 1985—accounting even for the three consecutive big losers following 1999—has been 11.5 percent.  Perhaps it’s now hard to believe: The same index that not all that long ago topped 5000 didn’t even open above four digits until 1996 (see table below).   

Nasdaq Annual Open and Gains Since 1986 
Year Open Annual Gain/Loss
1985 247.1  
1986 325 32%
1987 351.3 8%
1988 335.1 -5%
1989 378.9 13%
1990 452.9 20%
1991 373 -18%
1992 580.04 56%
1993 675.31 16%
1994 774.11 15%
1995 751.31 -3%
1996 1052.83 40%
1997 1292.65 23%
1998 1574.1 22%
1999 2207.54 40%
2000 4186.19 90%
2001 2474.16 -41%
2002 1965.18 -21%
2003 1346.93 -31%
2004 2011.08 49%
2005 2184.75 9%
   
Average annual gain 11.50%

 

March Feature


The Nasdaq Composite
March 10, 2005 marks the five-year anniversary of the Nasdaq's historic intraday high of 5132.52  Now it is less than half of that value.  Here, we consider what happened and what's next.

 


© 2005 Tom LaRocque, All Rights Reserved
303-477-9914· 3975 Zenobia St. · Denver, CO 80212