|
As stated:
Normally, through most of the 20th
century, a 5.79 percent gain in the stock market would take what,
a year or so?
This may be the most controversial (yet
conservative) assertion in this essay. I researched annual
closing prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1960 to
2004. In that period, the average annual gain was 6.72 percent, as
the Dow moved from 615.89 to 10,783.01. Reaching 20 years farther
back to include the World War II years, the average annual gain was
greater—an average of 7.15 percent from 1940 to 2004. Starting even
in 1970, shortly before a long bear market, the average annual gain
on the Dow through 2004 was 7.8 percent. Cherry-picking just the
boom years since 1981, the Dow’s average annual gain through 2004
was 11.54 percent.
As stated elsewhere, the Nasdaq
Composite’s average annual ascent in the 20 years since
1985—accounting even for the three consecutive big losers following
1999—has been 11.5 percent. Perhaps it’s now hard to believe: The
same index that not all that long ago topped 5000 didn’t even open
above four digits until 1996 (see table below).
|
Nasdaq Annual Open and Gains Since 1986 |
|
Year |
Open |
Annual Gain/Loss |
|
1985 |
247.1 |
|
|
1986 |
325 |
32% |
|
1987 |
351.3 |
8% |
|
1988 |
335.1 |
-5% |
|
1989 |
378.9 |
13% |
|
1990 |
452.9 |
20% |
|
1991 |
373 |
-18% |
|
1992 |
580.04 |
56% |
|
1993 |
675.31 |
16% |
|
1994 |
774.11 |
15% |
|
1995 |
751.31 |
-3% |
|
1996 |
1052.83 |
40% |
|
1997 |
1292.65 |
23% |
|
1998 |
1574.1 |
22% |
|
1999 |
2207.54 |
40% |
|
2000 |
4186.19 |
90% |
|
2001 |
2474.16 |
-41% |
|
2002 |
1965.18 |
-21% |
|
2003 |
1346.93 |
-31% |
|
2004 |
2011.08 |
49% |
|
2005 |
2184.75 |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average annual gain |
11.50% |
|
|
March Feature
|
|
The Nasdaq Composite |
| March 10, 2005 marks the five-year anniversary of the Nasdaq's
historic intraday high of 5132.52 Now it is less than half of that
value. Here, we consider what happened and what's next. |
|