As stated: I contend that 2207 represented "fair value" at that time, continuing a straight, steady uptrend that had been in progress for at least a decade.

First, this notion of fair value has nothing in common with the daily pre-market calculation of “fair value” for the S&P 500 index, based on comparing current stock prices with futures contracts on the S&P 500.  Nor does it even employ conventional measures such as a collective price-to-earnings ratio for the more than 3,000 stocks included in the Nasdaq Composite Index. 

This view of fair value is based simply on the idea that trend lines tend to continue.  Drawn roughly below is what I consider the “appropriate” trend line.  It begins with sub-1000 values in the mid-1980s, passes over the 2207 mark in the year 1999, excludes the aberrant opening 4000-plus value in the year 2000, and extends to a point slightly above 3000 at present.  

Clearly, this estimation of fair value is key to my analyses and forecasts, and may be subject to long and loud debates.  Please send me your thoughts.