|
As stated: This model applies to the
Nasdaq Composite Index, which I believe has followed an interesting
pattern of 15-month cycles since January 1999.
Wading substantially over my head in
terms of technical analysis, I define my so-called market “cycles”
this way. Each one begins with:
A reversal in behavior (i.e., a market top or bottom), or…
A cessation of behavior (e.g, an ascent followed by stagnation),
or…
A continuation of behavior past a point where it should have
stopped.
With those criteria, the completed
cycles in this discussion have lasted roughly 15 months. The
exact durations were as follows.
|
Period |
Start |
End |
No. Days |
No. Months |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1/4/1999 |
3/10/2000 |
432 |
14.2 |
|
2 |
3/11/2000 |
5/22/2001 |
438 |
14.4 |
|
3 |
5/23/2001 |
10/9/2002 |
505 |
16.6 |
|
4 |
10/10/2002 |
1/26/2004 |
474 |
15.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
462 |
15.2 |
As stated in one of my final
paragraphs, Period 5, in which we now reside, “is not necessarily
over, nor necessarily even close to conclusion.” As of March 1,
2005—the date this piece was posted—we are in day number 400. The
period can reasonably be expected to last another 30 to 100 days, in
my estimation. |
|
March Feature
|
|
The Nasdaq Composite |
| March 10, 2005 marks the five-year anniversary of the Nasdaq's
historic intraday high of 5132.52 Now it is less than half of that
value. Here, we consider what happened and what's next. |
|
